An-Najah News - By : Ghazi Mortaja
A Palestinian writer and analyst
Many theorists prefer analyzing international behavior through win and loss balances in the international system or by the permanent interests of any country, rather than using mutual influence of leaders.in another way. we say that US policy does not follow this path because It is difficult to assume, for example, if Hillary Clinton was elected would she to move her country's embassy to occupied Jerusalem. The policy of a Democratic president like Joe Biden will also be very different from the Republican President Donald Trump.
For many factors, Trump's popularity is declining as recent opinion polls show his scandals are continuing, most recently in the book of his former adviser John Bolton, so the chances of his Democratic opponent are strengthened strongly, and ((America's allies should prepare for Biden's presidency), as Philip Stevens-Director of Financial Times wrote in his article issued on 10/6/2020.
The bet
The pivot of the American role controls the central international issues in all over world, including the Palestinian-Israeli conflict Therefore, the Palestinian leadership should consider the scenario of the fall of the White House man in the upcoming elections next fall, and even to bet on this option as well as to bet getting rid of the Prime Minister of Benjamin Netanyahu in the elections that were repeated three times within a year, in order to be able to implement its plan of confrontation, and changing right-wing extremist policies initiated by the "King of Israel" since 2010 until now.
Mahmoud Abbas, a master of Arab and international politics, realizes that "the end of the Trump era" may rearrange the map of the political scene in the region, since Biden did not hide his rejection of what he called (the deal of the century), but for electoral reasons he talked about not changing that decision and to move the embassy to Jerusalem, which Trump implemented to obtain the support of the Jewish lobby.
Think tanks
Many leaders rely on recommendations made by research centers or what are known as (think tanks), to adopt strategic decisions on critical and important issues. But not the Palestinians, they have lack such think tanks, despite the proliferation of many centers, but some work in the field of money and opinions laundering and others works for the certain paths and not many have professionalism, research laboratories that open ways for the decision-maker to build the decisions upon its perceptions towards the relevant files.
For example, in health sector in Palestine, there is no weight for the specialized research centers and bodies, at the same time a friend of mine working in Uk told me that the English government was only responsible for approving the recommendations of the specialized scientific research committees.
On the other hand, the Palestinian politician consider the outputs of the research centers as nonsense that cannot be achieved or taken away. The political or economic researcher analyzing scientifically and practically his results end up with results that are only suitable for his Facebook pages because of the negligence of the relevant authorities to his results and recommendations. Here I refer to the role of the writer Hani Al-Masry, who issues studies and gives practical and scientific recommendations, but - as far as I know, at least -I have not heard that one of his recommendations has been taken.
History Lessons
Returning to the basic idea of Biden's wining or Trump's re-election, and my assessment based on history, the two possibilities may work in favor of the Palestinian cause, for two reasons:
1- History tells us that any American president who is re-elected gets back to his first lists in terms of rights and registration of positions, but with a controversial president like "Trump" - who thinks Finland is a part of Russia the study centers combined cannot know what he thinks, and what the political situation will be in the region in case he won second term.
2- Biden the Democrat is walking according to the "A-B" policy, according to studied plans, which is a policy used by all Democratic presidents preceded him before, and the last president was "Obama", and accordingly Biden will not be rude to the alliance with Arab and Palestinian issues, but may proceed His first presidential term is on Trump's own approach, to ensure that the Jewish lobby does not incite against him. But the only good of his win, is to stop breaking the decisions and legitimacy adopted by Trump for all international legitimacy decisions and the decisions of the United States itself are in regard to the Palestinian issue. Another gain is the restoration of relations with the Palestinian Authority and the possibility of keeping the situation in a "freeze - static" situation, which, under Trump's rule and his alliance with Netanyahu, has become a major achievement after the unimaginable leaps that took place during the past two years.
what shall the Palestinians do
The Palestinian leadership is planning at this stage for sure, anybody might think it’s not rational to cut off relations with the United States and stops coordination in all its forms with it and with its ally Israel, screaming and shouting day and night against the state that trembles many countries, countries that don't need the United States financially for hundreds of years. doing this is like an adventure and risk for all the mutual relations with the country.
Until the replacement of the current president, which is the first and easiest option for the Palestinian leadership in its political situation for the future of the Palestinian cause.
But this "adventure" must be accompanied by strategic plans. Research studies are supposed to be completed, it also should include all available, possible and expected options for comparison, if Biden wins the presidency, Palestinian decisions according to the outputs should be ready, so we as Palestinians excel in reactions, we do not plan to react which led the Palestinian cause being of the lowest stage in its history.
Three expected scenarios if Biden wins:
Following Trump footsteps of: This is expected if Biden encounters internal pressure or if the Senate is Republicans - and this is highly anticipated - Biden will be forced to complete Trump's plans drawn from the Jewish lobby, whether by order of annexation or deal of the century.. etc. . Here, there is no solution for the Palestinian leadership other than a solution to "get involved" and hand over responsibilities to Israel, the result that Israel does not want and does not plan for.
2- Burning time for the first presidential period: Perhaps it is the realistic, most anticipated option for Biden to prevent any new steps, whether if it come to the deal of the century or breaking international legitimacy decisions, but he will keep Trump decisions but without (facilitating implementation), for example he can keep the decision of moving the embassy to Jerusalem, but with broader restoration of relations with the Palestinian Authority, and this option is expected in light of decades-old Democrats policy. At least to ensure a second presidential term after the first four years.
Here the Palestinians have to fortify the country against any occupation’s plans. It is expected that Netanyahu will leave office after a year of knowing who’s the next American president, and this will form a new force wall for the Palestinian leadership to rearrange their cards, which requires starting. (In all the options expected) by arranging the PLO and work on reunify the country politically and geographically.
3- coup against Trump’s decisions and the return to the starting point: These are dreams, because history does not go back unless the Palestinian leadership possesses power cards, to fix some of the imbalances caused by the divisions and inequalities that have been caused by the deal of the century and the recent Israeli incursion.
Here, before we ask Biden to turn against Trump's decisions, the Palestinian image is supposed to be different, and the differences of opinion is a must for any nascent state. And these "dreams" can come true if the Palestinian preparations for these options are realistic.
IF Trump was reelected , the Palestinian leadership will not have many options to choose between, except to suspend hopes of changing Trump's trends and changing his decisions in accordance with the history of the American presidents in their second period, which was usually considered the appropriate period to launch peace and solution initiatives, like what happened Camp David In Clinton's last days in office. This option will be supported by Netanyahu's removal from his office in Israel, which might be supportive of the possibility of returning things to its first point but in this case the Palestinian people lack internal unity, national commitment to one legitimacy, a single representative, and the arrangement of the Palestinian politics inside, and that was something that is long overdue.
